With the implementation of more micro-stimulus measures, the recovery of the real economy has become obvious; With the implementation of national supporting policies and measures to support micro-stimulation, and the gradual weakening of "Meiyu" and the increase of fine weather in July, the downstream industries of alloy steel pipe market have been gearing up for large-scale preparations. In addition, the market of raw materials such as nickel-iron-nickel ore has also fallen to a phased low, and the bottom of the cost fluctuates, and the further decline will not be too great.

In the middle and late June, affected by the rainy weather, the terminal procurement declined all the way. However, in the off-season, steel mills have increased production against the market, and high output has become the norm. Then, after the strong supply and weak demand in June and the hot July, can the steel market change? The author makes a simple analysis below: From a macro perspective, the official PMI of China's manufacturing industry in June announced at the beginning of the month rose to 51.0(51.0%), and it rose for the fourth consecutive month; Expected 51.0, previous value 50.8. It shows that the manufacturing industry has continued the good momentum of steady growth. However, the expected index of new orders, production and new import and export orders rebounded significantly. Among them, the production index was 53.0%, 0.2 percentage point higher than last month, and it rose for two consecutive months; The index of new export orders was 50.3%, up 1.0 percentage points from last month, which greatly eased the domestic supply pressure caused by weak demand. From the perspective of steel mills, due to factors such as the increase of their own profits, the daily output of crude steel of enterprises reached 1,836,700 tons in mid-June, with an increase of 0.41 million tons, up by 0.22% month on month. In mid-June, the inventory of alloy steel pipe enterprises at the end of this decade was 15.113 million tons, which did not increase by 583,100 tons compared with the previous decade and rose by 4.01% from the previous month. If this month's steel mills do not make greater efforts to reduce production and limit production, the continuous recovery of crude steel will cause resistance to the rebound of steel prices. In terms of inventory, according to new data, as of the end of last week, the total steel inventory in China was 13,435,700 tons, a decrease of 120,400 tons from the previous month and 1,322,600 tons from the previous month. Among them, 6,053,900 tons of rebar; 1,406,300 tons of wire rod; Hot rolled 3,157,800 tons; 1,334,800 tons of medium plate; Cold rolled 1,482,900 tons. The social stock of steel has been declining for 17 weeks, and the stock specifications in many places are incomplete. The supporting effect of low stock on steel prices may begin to appear.